With the official Jobs Report delayed, today’s jobless claims just became the most important number of the week.

This month’s economic calendar has thrown investors a curveball. Due to scheduling adjustments at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the November Jobs Report is delayed until December 16 — six days after the Federal Reserve meets to decide on interest rates.

For commercial real estate professionals, this creates a “Data Vacuum,” as The Fed is about to set policy without the “official” employment scorecard.

However, we did get one critical piece of the puzzle this morning: The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

In a normal week, this data point can often be noise. Today, it is the only clear signal the Fed has. Here is what this morning’s release tells us about the labor market heading into next week.

1. The “Real-Time” Labor Pulse

This morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week.

• The Interpretation: This figure came in below estimates and represents the lowest level for initial claims since September 2022. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility, also fell to 214,750, the lowest since January. This data indicates that despite headlines regarding corporate cuts, actual layoffs remain limited and employers are largely holding onto workers.

2. The ADP Context

We are viewing today’s data against the backdrop of yesterday’s ADP report, which showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs.

• The Divergence: We are seeing a clear split in the data. ADP signals a contraction in hiring, while today’s claims data shows historically low firing. This suggests a “low-hire, low-fire” market environment: companies aren’t expanding, but they also aren’t letting existing talent go. Continuing claims (the number of people receiving benefits) retreated to 1.94 million, though they remain near highs seen in 2021, suggesting it may be harder for those who are unemployed to find new work.

3. What This Means for Next Week

For the Federal Reserve, this mixed picture complicates the decision on Wednesday. The low level of initial claims argues that the labor market is not collapsing, which gives the Fed “cover” to be cautious. However, the lack of hiring pressure seen in ADP suggests cooling is underway.

The Bottom Line 

We are entering the Fed meeting with a divided narrative. The labor market is resilient but stagnant. For investors, this likely reinforces a “steady” approach from the Fed next week, with heavy emphasis on the commentary rather than drastic rate moves. Watch credit spreads closely over the next 48 hours, as they will indicate how lenders are pricing this unique mix of stability and stagnation.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a solicitation to make investment decisions. Data sourced from the Dept. of Labor and ADP.